Predicting the NEXT Israeli Government

The 7 Possible Governments

Choose your Poison!

Our Prediction: A Likud Led Government – (77%),  A Bibi Led Government – (68%)

 

Predicting any Election Result is not unlike predicting the weather – 10 days out and we have greater confidence of understanding what may happen. But 70 or 80 days away, whilst we may know the general parameters of what the Big Picture will be, we are left with greater uncertainty. Israeli electoral politics is if anything predictably unstable.

The most recent Poll of Polls suggest that a ‘Right-Wing” Government looks all but inevitable (despite the recent surge for Benny Ganz and Hosen L’Yisrael)

Only two – albeit hugely important – questions remain.

Firstly, Just how “Right-Wing”?

And secondly, what are the chances that the new Prime Minister will be anybody other than Bibi Netanyahu?

To answer the first question, we need to place all the political parties along a left-right spectrum. See our Land-God Index

We differ from the traditional Israeli media tendency to lump all parties into either “Right-Wing-Religious” or “Centre-Left-Arab” Blocks.

We have instead allocated the political parties to a ‘Right’, ‘Centre Right’, ‘Centre Left’ and ‘Left’ grouping as follows; (In brackets their current strength in the Poll of Polls)

‘Right’ – Likud, New Right (Hayemin Hehadash), United Torah Judaism, Shas, Israeli Beitanu, Habait Hayudi, Ozma Israel, Zehut (56)

‘Centre Right’ – Yesh Aid, Hosen L’Yisrael, Kulanu, Gesher (40)

‘Centre Left’ – Labor, Hatnua (7)

‘Left’ – Joint List, Ta’al, Meretz (17)

On these numbers the re-election of a Rightwing Government is all but certain. As the Palestinian dominated ‘Joint List’ will not be part of any broad Centre Left-Centre Right government the only realistic government s a Right Wing that ‘picks off’ a Centre Right party to give provide its majority (Just 61 is needed).

There is of course one huge caveat. The indictment of Bibi Netanyahu. The re-election of the outgoing government is unlikely if the Attorney General choses to indict Netanyahu as Moshe Kahlon leader of Kulanu has already stated his party would not join a Government (under) Netanyahu under those circumstances.

Our percentage chances are informed by the Opinion Polls and a two to one likelihood chance that a decision WILL be made to indict Netanyahu.

 

Our 7 Possible Governments

 

1 – Bibi Hangs-on but needs to pivot further Right (22%)

A Government of the Hard Right – Yeah it can get worse folks!

Bibi is indicted but both Likud and he weather the political storm. The Right Wing manages to claw back a few seats as Habait Hayudi crosses electoral threshold. Despite a refusal of Moshe Kahlon to support Netanyahu, the outgoing Government is re-elected (without Kulanu). Israeli Beitanu rejoin.

A Government of Likud (27), Israeli Beitanu (6) Shas (6), United Torah Judaism (7), Habait Hayudi (5) and the New Right (10) of Naftali Bennett and Ayalet Shaked. Total Seats: 61

 

2 – Anyone-But-Bibi (20%)

A Government of the Opposition Centre Right 

If as is likely a decision is made to indict Bibi, and if the polls shift even by 4 seats against Likud in response to the indictment (as has been predicted) and if all Centre Right leaders hold fast to their stated position NOT to support Bibi in the event of indictment than an alternative Centre Right Government suddenly appears a possibility. A lot of “If’s’.

A lot of “ifs” may give comfort to Netanyahu. But worryingly for Netanyahu all those “ifs” are more likely than not.

In this scenario a Centre Right Government under (Yair Lapid or Benny Gantz) would try pick off a Right-Wing party to join their anyone but Bibi government. The most likely candidate is Israel Beitanu (who bolted from the Government last November).

A Government of Hosen L’Yisrael (21), Yesh Atid (10) Israeli Beitanu (6) Labor (8) Kulanu (6) Meretz (5) Gesher (5): Total Seats: 61

 

3 – Bibi Dumps the Settlers (20%)

A Government of the Right and Centre Right 

Bibi is not indicted (unlikely) and therefore he has multiple parties to choose from to form his 5th Government. In the interests of stability, a broad Government of the Right and Centre Right is established.

Likud (30), Israeli Beitanu (5) Shas (5), United Torah Judaism (7), Kulanu (5) Gesher (5) and Yesh Atid (10) or Hosen L’Yisrael Israeli (20) Total Seats: 67 – 77

 

4 – Bibi Squeezes Back Kahlon Capitulates (16%)

Government of the Right Re-Elected 

Bibi is indicted but not only does both Likud and he weather the political storm, Moshe Kahlon comes under pressure to avoid a centre left government and agrees (despite his promise that he would not) to support Netanyahu despite indictment.

This is in effect the re-election of the previous government. Israel Beitanu rejoin.

A Government of Likud (27), Kulanu (5) Israeli Beitanu (5) Shas (6), United Torah Judaism (7), Habait Hayudi (4) and the New Right (9) of Naftali Bennett and Ayalet Shaked. Total Seats: 63

 

5 – A Vindicated Bibi choses the Hard Right (10%)

A Government of the Hard Right (Same as in No. 1)

Bibi is not indicted (unlikely) and choses a Hard-Right Government over a Centre-Right coalition.

A Government of Likud (31), Israeli Beitanu (5) Shas (6), United Torah Judaism (7), Habait Hayudi (4) and the New Right (9) of Naftali Bennett and Ayalet Shaked. Total Seats: 62 Seats

 

6 – Likud Decapitates its King Bibi (9%)

A Government of the Right and Centre Right

Bibi is indicted and the numbers don’t add up to form a purely Right-Wing (or any) government. Likud unceremoniously dump Netanyahu. A broad Government of the Right and Centre Right is established with Gideon Saar as Prime Minister.

Likud (25), Israeli Beitanu (6) Shas (5), United Torah Judaism (7), Kulanu (5) Gesher (5) and Yesh Atid (10) or Hosen L’Yisrael Israeli (20) Total Seats: 63 to 73 Seats

  

7 – A Miracle (for the Centre Left) on Polling Day (3%)

A Minority Government of the Centre (Left?)

Bibi indicted and the polls shift further leftward in the next couple of months. Kulanu or Gesher decide to support Gantz or Yair Lapid for PM. An unexpected alternative government on centre-left emerges. Joint List and Ta’al provide outside support to support a minority government to block rightwing government.

A Government of  Hosen L’Yisrael (23) Yesh Atid (11), Labor (8) Meretz (6) Gesher or Kulanu (6) Hatnuah (4): Total Seats 58 Seats

 

 Adding up the above – and the chances of following are as follows:

A Likud Led Government – (77%)

A Bibi Netanyahu Led Government – (68%)

A Rightwing Government – (45%)

A Hard-Right Wing Government – (Excludes Kulanu Includes Habait Hayudi) – (32%)

A Centrist Government – (23%)

A Yair Lapir or Benny Gantz led Government – (23%)

A Gideon Saar (or anyone but Bibi) in a Likud led Government – (9%)

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